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Has Akio Toyoda Lost it? Predicting New EV Sales Stall

Akio Toyoda, the president of Toyota Motor Corporation, has been making waves lately with a bold prediction that could have some serious implications for the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

He’s predicting new EV sales might level off at around 30%.

This might seem a bit counterintuitive, especially when there’s a growing global interest in EVs and governments and companies are all pushing for more production and adoption to tackle climate change.

So, will Akio Toyoda’s prediction hold up, or is he underestimating the potential of the EV market?

This article dives into his predicting new EV sales, why he’s saying it, and what it could mean for both new and used EV markets.

If Akio Toyoda’s prediction actually comes true, it could lead to a big change in the dynamics of the EV market. Putting a 30% cap on new EV sales might slow down the progress towards a fully electric future, which could affect both manufacturers and consumers.

Manufacturers might need to adjust their strategies and expect less aggressive growth. As for consumers, they could face limited options and higher prices due to reduced competition. However, it’s important to remember that this prediction, like any other, is influenced by many variables and uncertainties in the ever-evolving landscape of automobile technology and environmental policy.

predicting new EV sales

Akio Toyoda's 30% Cap Prediction

Akio Toyoda believes that the market share of new Electric Vehicle (EV) sales will soon plateau at around 30%, despite the current global momentum towards EVs. This prediction is supported by several key factors.

  • First, Toyoda believes that the current infrastructure, like electricity supply and charging stations, might not be able to handle a rapid shift to EVs.

A few weeks ago, we all vividly remember the unfortunate incident of frozen charging stations causing inconvenience for many.

  • Second, he points out the environmental costs of producing EVs, especially the batteries that require rare earth metals. This process has significant environmental implications often overlooked in discussions about EVs and climate change.
  • The third factor is the current economic and political climate. With countries still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, the investment needed to transition to electric might be seen as impractical, especially in oil-rich countries.
  • Lastly, Toyoda suggests that the adoption rate of new technologies usually slows down once it reaches a certain percentage of the population. It’s called the S-curve’ effect. If this holds true for EVs, the initial growth could indeed slow down, resulting in a “30% cap.”

Many industry experts are skeptical of Toyoda’s prediction, but it definitely makes you think about the future of the EV market. As we navigate the intersection of technology, environment, and the economy, only time will tell if Toyoda’s 30% cap becomes a reality.

Assessing the Validity of Toyoda's Prediction: Potential Strengths and Weaknesses

Toyoda’s prediction about the supposed 30% cap on EV market growth has sparked a lot of debate. Some think his reasoning is based on factual observations about infrastructure, environmental concerns, and the economy, while others see flaws in his argument.

Let’s explore the potential validity and possible shortcomings of Toyoda’s prediction, offering a balanced view of this controversial topic.

Potential Strengths

One of the most convincing reasons for Toyoda’s prediction is how he sees the current state of infrastructure. As mentioned earlier, a lack of charging stations everywhere is still a big hurdle for EV adoption. While more countries are slowly investing in building more charging points, it will take time before they become as common as gas stations. This delay might slow down the growth of EVs because people may not want to switch until charging facilities are more convenient.

Another good point in Toyoda’s prediction is his take on environmental concerns. EVs are definitely more eco-friendly compared to traditional gasoline cars, but their production still has an impact on the environment.

The production and disposal of batteries, in particular, raise concerns about the overall carbon footprint of EVs. Some experts even argue that a significant increase in EV demand could deplete important natural resources like lithium and cobalt. These factors could limit the growth of the EV market and back up Toyoda’s prediction.

Potential Weaknesses

Despite these potential strengths, Toyoda’s prediction has a few weaknesses. One big flaw is assuming that technology and consumer behavior will progress in a straight line. While EVs are definitely becoming more popular, there’s no guarantee this trend will continue without any bumps. Technological advancements could introduce other sustainable transportation options like hydrogen-powered vehicles (check out this link for more info), which Toyota obviously has an investment in, or fully autonomous cars. These innovations might shake up the market. Plus, consumer behaviors are unpredictable. Economic downturns or other unforeseen events could impact EV sales and slow down their growth.

Moreover, Toyoda’s prediction also overlooks potential policy changes that could significantly affect the EV market. Governments around the world are increasingly incentivizing the adoption of electric vehicles through tax breaks and subsidies. However, these policies are subject to change depending on political and economic factors. A shift in policy could result in a different trajectory for the EV market than what Toyoda predicts.

Effects on the Used EV Market

predicting new EV sales

Toyoda’s forecast could have significant implications for the used EV market. If new EV sales decelerate, there could be a surge in demand for pre-owned electric vehicles, as individuals seek eco-friendly alternatives at more affordable prices. Check out my post on this topic.

Economic factors or policy changes could make new EVs less affordable, pushing potential buyers to explore the used EV market, which has traditionally been more budget-friendly.

On top of that, this increased demand for used EVs could directly impact their prices and availability. With high demand and a limited supply of used EVs, prices could go up.

It might even create a seller’s market for used EVs, at least until new EV sales stabilize.

Plus, if new EV prices remain high or new models become harder to find, the availability of used EVs could become limited. It’s interesting how the dynamics of the used EV market can change, showing how the new and used EV markets are connected and influenced by technology, consumer behavior, and policy shifts.


To sum it up, the EV market – both new and used – is heavily influenced by various factors like government policies, consumer behavior, and economic factors.

Akio Toyoda’s prediction suggests a potential slowdown in new EV sales, which could lead to a surge in demand for pre-owned electric vehicles. This, in turn, might affect pricing and availability in the used EV market, possibly creating a seller’s market.

But hey, let’s not forget that these markets are all connected, and changes in one definitely impact the other.

Elon Musk has had a big impact on the demand for EVs, but whether his million-mile battery” prediction will affect the market for cheaper EVs is still up in the air. We’ll have to wait and see how these advancements play out in both new and used EV markets.

The future of the EV market is dynamic and subject to shifts in technology, policy, and consumer trends. While we can’t predict for sure, it’s pretty clear that the landscape of electric vehicle ownership could see some big changes in the coming years.


I'm a business strategist specializing in pre-owned cars, with a passion for music, food, and wine. Remember, staying ahead of the curve is crucial for success!

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